Should Northline fund the rollout after the pilot?
Decide whether to release the funds. Explain the two thresholds you would check.
The question
The pilot has already cost $120k. A full rollout would cost $200k more. Northline has 20,000 eligible tickets each month for the next 12 months. Each correctly routed ticket saves $1 in avoidable cash. Keep service quality fixed. The sponsor will release rollout funds only when independently checked routing accuracy is at least 90%. The audited pilot reports 88%.
“Should Northline fund the rollout after the pilot?”
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A strong answer, step by step
Open each step in turn. This is one strong answer, not the only one.
Step 1: Start from the decision today
“I would compare the $200k of future rollout cost with the next year of savings.”
Why it works: The $120k pilot spend cannot change with this decision.
Step 2: Check the cash threshold
“The rollout needs $200k across 240,000 tickets, or about 83.33% accuracy, to break even. At 88%, the net is $11,200.”
Why it works: The cash test clears even though the quality requirement does not.
Step 3: Apply the release rule
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Hold until the pilot meets the release rule
The strong move. The result is below the required 90% accuracy.
Release because net cash is positive
Tempting, but it misses something. The rollout clears the cash threshold but still fails the quality rule.
Hold because the pilot cost $120k
Tempting, but it misses something. The pilot spending is already committed and cannot change this choice.
See how a strong candidate says it
“I would hold the rollout at 88%. If a new independent check shows 91% and all other facts stay fixed, I would release the funds.”
Why it works: The new evidence would meet the 90% requirement and keep cash positive.
Step 4: Keep the check comparable
“I would ask for results from the same eligible ticket mix and have finance verify the dollar saved per correct route.”
Why it works: A different mix could inflate the result or reduce the savings.
The answer, in short
- Decision
- Hold at 88%. Release after a comparable independent check at 91%.
- Because
- At 91%, the rollout yields $18,400 of net cash and meets the 90% release rule.
- What would change it
- Delay if the independent result falls below 90% or avoidable savings fall enough to erase the gain.
Common traps
- Choosing before naming the binding constraint.
Check your answer
- Did I name the decision?
- Did I apply the constraint?
- Did I respond to the new fact?
- Did I name evidence to verify?
Last reviewed Nov 10, 2026